Does Rove still Rule?

So, is gay marriage still the golden Rovian ticket for Republican electoral success?

Nate Silver says maybe not.

And the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza says not all GOP strategists are convinced it’s slam dunk, either. Some still think marriage is a winning Republican issue, but others:

 But, there are significant dissenting elements within the Republican professional class when it comes to using gay marriage as an effective wedge issue in campaigns. “The world is changing and I don’t think people, particularly swing voters, care as much either way,” said one high level Republican strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly on the topic.

Another Republican consultant said that the issue is a complicated one for GOP candidates in the context of a political campaign. “It’s sort of a no-win,” said the source. “You often need to be on one side of the issue to win the primary, then you’re in trouble for the general.”

In Iowa, the issue definitely doesn’t help Republicans if it means they end up with U.S. Rep. Steve King as their nominee for governor.  For all of Culver’s weaknesses, King is not going to win a statewide election. For starters, Iowans aren’t going to put anyone from kooky, unpopular Congress in charge of state government. Second, he’s far more conservative than most Iowans on a list of issues. Issues people care about.

 Maybe gay marriage helps them pick off a few legislative seats, but local issues and personalities still drive those races.

Basically, I’m just not sure 18 months from now this will be the end-all, be-all issue. It’s possible, but I think a lot of Iowans will have moved on.

I know millions of dollars will be spent convincing us that the world is ending because some gay couples get marriage licenses and the civil rights that come with them, but I still have faith that Iowans know absurdity and desperate scare tactics them they see them.

And what about young Iowans? Just a few years ago Republicans were so eager to get them to stay in Iowa that they introduced legislation eliminating income taxes for workers under 30. Now, GOP leaders want to send a message of intolerance that will alienate many young people who see gay rights as no big deal.

How is that smart politics?

Wednesday Reads — Infestation

State experts have been warning for years that the dreaded emerald ash borer was coming, and that once it got here, it would kill every ash tree in its path. That would be really bad news for a lot of Eastern Iowa cities.

The Gazette carries that bad news on its front page this morning. State officials say the little green menace has been detected in Wisconsin trees just across the Mississippi. The borers can fly 12 miles, according to Rick Smith’s story, so they’re probably already in Iowa.

Cedar Rapids officials say the city is home to 10,000 to 15,000 ash trees, all of which would be dead within two to five years once an infestation begins. The government is working on eradication strategies.

OK, OK, I know the gay marriage debate is still the state’s hottest story.

The Des Moines Register has an interesting piece on the pros and cons of a con-con. That’s a constitutional convention, and some see it now as the quickest way to get gay marriage re-banned.

But the DMR notes that a convention would be wide open for consideration of amendments on any subject under the sun. It’s the proverbial box of chocolates. You just don’t know what you’ll get. Conservatives pushing for a marriage amendment may get other stuff they don’t like:

“I’m inclined to hope they succeed, if that’s their strategy,” said Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal of Council Bluffs, who has saluted Friday’s Iowa Supreme Court ruling legalizing gay marriage. “There’s a lot of good, progressive issues that we could pursue: a woman’s right to choose, guaranteed health care for all Iowa citizens, workers’ rights – so if there are people that want to help us get to a constitutional convention, that’s kind of my dream world.”

Of course, this is bluster to some extent. But Dems do have a 100,000-vote-plus registration advantage right now, so it’s not like the state’s reliably right-leaning anymore. That’s got to give Republicans some pause.

Speaking of pauses, state budget cuts hitting the courts will delay the date gays and lesbians can get officially hitched. It’s now April 27. It was supposed to be April 24, but that’s a court furlough day.

Also at the Statehouse, it’s looking like lawmakers may finally roll back the useless/harmful 2,000 foot residency restriction for sex offenders.

Gazette/Lee’s Charlotte Eby has the goods on a study committee’s recommendation that the residency limit be lifted for all but offenders who committed the most serious crimes against kids. County attorneys and local law enforcement have lobbied to get rid of the law, saying it doesn’t keep kids safe and makes it tougher to monitor scattered offenders.

Instead, the bill would seek to create “exclusionary zones,”  such as parks etc., aimed at restricting where sex offenders might hang out and scout for young victims.  Members of a bipartisan panel that crafted the bill hope to get it passed in the final days of the legislative session. They’re waiting to see what Culver thinks.